Job Market Shows Signs of Weakening as Consumers Turn Gloomy_我的网站
A |
The number of job openings fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, down from the prior month’s revised 9.1 million in a sign that the economy is downshifting, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday.
The drop brings the number about 2.5 million below the 11.4 million available jobs of a year ago.
Openings fell in professional and business services, down 198,000; health care and social assistance, off by 130,000; and state and local government, including education, where the combined losses totaled 129,000. There was a strong increase in information industry jobs, up by 101,000; and in transportation, warehousing and utilities, where openings increased by 75,000.
“Now it is taking a bit longer for jobseekers to find a job,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “There’s meaningful slack in the job market, but it is still a historically tight job market. Overall, I still see the U.S. labor market as understaffed.”
The government will report the monthly jobs number for August on Friday with expectations for a gain of about 168,000 jobs.
“Investors should expect a softening labor report this Friday, further cementing the thesis that the Fed is getting close to finishing its tightening cycle,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for August found a pullback as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gasoline and groceries.
The present situation index – a reading of how consumers assess the current economy – fell to 144.8 from 153.0 in July. The expectations index, a forward-looking measure, declined to 80.2 from July’s bump to 88.
“Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,” saidDana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular.”
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups – and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” Peterson added. “Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
Consumers expected higher interest rates to come, while also lowering their assessment of the probability of a recession.
Also Tuesday, home prices rose 0.9% in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. Prices were unchanged on a year-over-year basis.
"U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023," said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.”
"As we've noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based,” Lazzara added. “Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.
“Today’s market offers buyers the frustrating combination of low inventory and high home prices,” said Realtor.com economic data analyst Hannah Jones. “Many existing homeowners remain on the sidelines of the market, content to stay put as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs.”
“As a result, home shoppers are seeing fewer existing homes for sale and facing more competition for the homes available,” Jones added. “Builders have started to pick up construction activity to fill this gap, but remain cautious as affordability challenges continue to stifle buyer demand.”
C | 其中,腾讯出资约13.63亿元,持股比例约1.12%;阿里旗下阿里云飞天出资约13.63亿元,持股比例约1.11%;百度出资约3.41亿元,持股比例约0.28%。
可灵在国内视频生成领域的排名仅次于Seedance,押注可灵,便是押注市场第二名。
但阿里、腾讯的AI视频战略,不仅仅押注在一家外部公司。
阿里4月份上线了AI视频生成模型快乐马(HappyHorse),6月份大模型迭代到HappyHorse-1.1。阿里云官网显示,HappyHorse-1.1系列模型深度适配广告营销、电商展示、短剧制作与社交媒体创意等内容生产场景。生成720P视频每秒价格在0.54元。
值得一提的是,快乐马负责人为此前被称为“可灵之父”的张迪。
D | 阿里一边投资可灵,一边从可灵挖人。
目前快乐马最大优势可能就是价格。阿里云一位商务向Tech星球表示,快乐马目前在使用体验上其实没有太大优势,主要客户为广告营销主,更适合制作静态,没有太多打斗画面,场景不太多的内容。
E | 价格上,最近一个月快乐马开放了年框,价格直接低到四折,之前都是八折。
F | 720P原价0.9元/秒,1080P1.2元/秒,现在最低0.36元/秒。对比来看,Seedance2.0每秒价格在1元。最便宜的就属快乐马。
上述商务人员坦言,现在快乐马客户并不多,市场份额不高,与Seedance差距比较大。
腾讯则通过腾讯视频推出了面向漫剧制作的工业级AI平台WorkRally(“我可接力”),在名字上与腾讯当下最火的AI应用WorkBuddy类似。WorkRally工作台显示,平台内嵌的大模型分别有:梦宝2.0、梦宝2.0FAST、灵宝O3、乐宝、维宝主体生视频、维宝Q2pro。
G | 大模型名字与腾讯元宝类似。
腾讯视频6月底在2026腾讯视频年度发布上披露,目前已有130多家漫剧企业入驻WorkRally,制作成本普遍降低约60%。WorkRally在原来的基础上升级成三个版本:专业影视版、精品动画版、AI漫剧版。
价格上,WorkRally工作台显示,用户充值500元起,1元等于10积分。
H | 生成一个480p视频需要消耗32积分,一秒约为0.8元。
可见,阿里与腾讯两大巨头,在加码视频生成领域的战略几乎如出一辙。
“反字节联盟”浮出水面
除了自研和投资可灵之外,阿里、腾讯还在押注其他AI视频公司。